Assuming he needed his seasonal debut He travelled and jumped particularly well when beating Deep Purple and Planet Of Sound over this course and distance in April Poquelin is best when racing as a fresh horse and faces a very different challenge here in comparison to his latest four races which were all run at Cheltenham. He is not without a chance but the fact that he is trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh means he is likely to trade at a shorter price than his form merits.
Kalahari King and Forpadydeplasterer have yet to prove their stamina in a top class race; nevertheless, if either of them does get home they will be worthy contenders. It might pay to remember that Forpadydeplasterer has finished second in seven out of his last eight races; therefore, whichever horse we fancy it may pay to have a more speculative wager on our selection to beat Forpadydeplasterer in a forecast.
This leaves us with the horse that has most in his favour here providing the ground is no worse than good to soft. The fact that he is now a year-old is obviously not in his favour; however, this is certainly a scenario where the positive points far outweigh the negative. He will only have Deep Purple taking him on for the lead and although that horse ran with great credit at Cheltenham he has tended to perform better when racing as a fresh horse. The three possible options for how to back him are: each-way, win only or back to lay.
Of the remaining two alternatives the best option is probably a back to lay. Of course, his price in the first place has to be big enough to justify any type of bet and at the time of writing I am hoping that at least Poquelin, Kalahari King, Forpadydeplasterer and Voy Por Ustedes will be preferred in the betting market.
He ran well for a long way in the Supreme and was still in contention at the second last flight which was an excellent effort considering that was only his second ever race over hurdles. Providing he is a big enough price I might be tempted into a small each-way investment on him. If Lenabane runs in the 2. He fell early on in the Jewson but had previously finished close up with Pandorama and Weapons Amnesty in a Grade One chase over three miles on testing ground at Leopardstown.
He will be more suited to the conditions on offer at Aintree and could run well in a race that does not appear to have a stand out contender. Finally, I have had Frankie Figg in mind for the Topham Chase since supporting him at a three figure price in the same race last year.
The bonus with Frankie Figg is that he will race prominently and therefore we should have plenty of opportunity to lay the bet off in running at a single figure price. Possibly before Bechers Brook! We need to take advantage of every offer going to maximise our chances of success and the obvious place to start is deciding who to bet with. If we are putting our hard earned money on with a bookmaker we need to ensure that we choose a company that are offering five places for an each way bet.
It seems to me that due to the unique nature of the race a statistical platform to create a short list is even more important than usual. Personally, I have little time for statistics that tell us how many favourites have won this race in the past; however, there are a number of facts I can see a logical reason for and therefore am prepared to at least be guided by them.
If I did not take this route and focussed on my usual form study first then I would be facing an impossible task not to mention, struggling with a short list of twenty plus horses. The statistics I have concentrated on this year are taken from the last ten years although some will carry substance beyond that time limit:. I must confess that I had a small ante-post bet with the exchanges in February on The Package who, as a seven year old will be attempting to become the first of his age group to win since The obvious back to lay opportunity in the race is Irish Raptor who has winning form at the course, will appreciate the drying conditions and most important of all will be up with the lead.
There are far better opportunities for making money this week and we should allow this fact to be reflected in our staking plan. Play safe. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stakes not returned, restrictions apply. This sports promotion cannot be used in conjunction with another Ladbrokes.
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If the FAQs page doesn't answer your query, please fill in your details below and we'll endeavour to respond as soon as possible. Was it a red herring, given that those greens increased the random factor? Possibly, but if there's a course at which to chance him it's this one. Victor Perez is the other one at double-figure odds I looked twice at, largely because he's gone well in both starts here, he's established himself as a broadly excellent desert player, and his Dunhill Links win is a nice pointer.
All that being said he has made a slow start to the year and I'm a little worried he'll be weighed down by the Ryder Cup, in a way similar to Alex Levy three years ago. Levy of course was aiming for a higher goal - to be the Frenchman on the team in Paris - but Perez has his own uniquely difficult burden, having been in A1 position to qualify before the coronavirus pandemic changed everything. With performances worth more as we edge closer to September, Perez isn't quite back to square one but it may well feel like it.
Clearly, Dubuisson is among the riskiest conveyances in the sport, partly because he might on a whim decide he'd rather spend the week fishing. So far in his career, Dubuisson has won twice - both at the same course in the Turkish Airlines Open, beating strong fields along the way. His other standout European Tour performances have come in the DP World Tour Championship, where on three occasions he's been inside the top four. Then there's the Nedbank Challenge, where his last three appearances read , and Kuala Lumpur, where he's finished 11th and third in two goes.
He also seems to quite like Binhai Lake , and has finished exactly ninth on three occasions at Doha. Most of these courses, Sun City in particular, encourage driver upon driver, and my overriding memories of both wins in Turkey are of him hitting it and finding it.
It would be fair to say he doesn't get wrapped up in the intricacies of the sport, and like the mercurial Bubba Watson albeit at a lower level, just how engaged he is, just how convinced he is that he can score, often sets him up for success or failure and in turn explains why he plays well at a select group of courses. May I just say how much admiration and respect I have for professional golfer Victor Dubuisson's Instagram page.
Last week's venue is not one of them - he's now played the Dubai Desert Classic seven times, missed five cuts, averages over-par, and has never made the top For that reason alone we can ignore it, or even take encouragement from the fact he was a shot from making the weekend. Before it, he defied a bad start in Abu Dhabi - his first competitive round in 15 weeks - and climbed to 25th at one of those courses he does appear to enjoy. Throughout both, Dubuisson's ball-striking has been very good, especially at Abu Dhabi where he was eighth off the tee and hit plenty of quality approaches.
Go back to and we again see encouraging signs, with two top finishes from just seven starts and a very respectable effort at Wentworth. While we all want to see him more often, when he has played, he has actually played rather well. And so we come to Saudi Arabia, and one of those courses. Dubuisson sat 97th after the first round of the edition, then shot to climb to 18th. On his return, he started - that's under across those six rounds in succession - to earn a place in the final group, where his reunion with Ryder Cup pal McDowell only went to plan for one of them, Dubuisson faltering as he finished sixth.
On both occasions, he's driven it brilliantly and that's what I think it comes down to. When he can stand on a tee and hit driver after driver, he remains a hugely capable player. At the courses we know he likes, he has to be considered, and those past Ryder Cup, WGC and Rolex Series exploits offer some hope that he could even secure a hugely popular third professional win.
If he actually wants to, that is. This big-hitting Kiwi also looks to have done nothing special so far this year, but he too was back from a long break when teeing it up in Abu Dhabi MC by one , and after an opening 73 in Dubai he showed signs that his game might be coming together. Primarily, Fox's big strength is actually approach play, which has been of a very high standard for some time. That was in evidence on his final start of , at Wentworth, and he's moved through the gears since returning, ranking sixth last week over in Dubai.
For such a powerful player, the fact he doesn't figure all that highly in the off-the-tee charts reveals that he struggles badly to hit fairways, and is prone to a big wide. In fact it's nine starts now since he last hit more than half of the fairways, and that performance at Celtic Manor helped produce his strongest driving stats of the year. My hope is that here in Saudi Arabia, he can find that advantage without necessarily having to find the short stuff.
That underlines the reality of this course. You can stray, you can escape when missing by a mile, and you can make up a lot of ground by launching one to within a few yards of the green. Fox has proven it, and if he can make it three years in succession of big off-the-tee gains, there's no reason he can't extend strong form figures of The fact that his best high-profile form has come in Rolex Series events on links golf courses means that he should be able to adapt to whatever conditions we're presented with, and for the third year running I expect his best desert form to come at the course which should suit him above all others.
It's rare that I rely so much on course form as in generally I tend to think it does get overplayed, although it would've led to both winners last week. That said, the influx of overseas talent means we've a selection of candidates here who've shown they can score around Royal Greens, including the likes of Hao-tong Li and Gavin Green, and so many of them are on offer at huge prices.
As for Li, he's another who has thrived off the tee here, but is currently driving the ball very poorly and shooting some big numbers as a result. It's not impossible that he could remind us all of the class which saw him win the Dubai Desert Classic at Rory McIlroy's expense, especially as his iron play has improved, and he too is interesting. Wilco Nienaber has made a very poor start to the year but volatility is to be expected when you hit the ball as hard as he does, and if this does turn into a repeat of he could quickly leave behind a confidence-draining fortnight, but it was Francesco Laporta I found hardest to leave out.
In on a sponsor's invitation, Laporta struck the ball fabulously in Abu Dhabi only to miss the cut by one having had 67 putts. Prior to that, he was runner-up in Dubai, and having contended in Abu Dhabi in he has built up a nice desert record. Not the longest off the tee, he nevertheless drives the ball really well and as a multiple Challenge Tour winner who has been seventh in a Rolex Series event, there's a lot to like. Crocker is quite simply hitting the ball well enough to win a very good tournament like this one.
Twice in his last three starts, in the DP World Tour Championship and in Abu Dhabi, he's gained over 11 strokes on the field with his ball-striking alone. A couple of weeks before the first of those, he had a great chance to win at Leopard Creek. Short-game issues are undermining his progress - whether it was kikuyu rough or some other factor, they disappeared for that one week in South Africa - but when he does get by on and around the greens, he's a threat.
Here at a course where he could do serious damage off the tee, I'm willing to take a chance given that he's contended in Qatar and generally looks a good wind player. In this event last year, Crocker produced another brilliant driving display and at the odds on offer, at a course where players of his kind look to be at a potentially decisive advantage, I'll chance him earning his breakthrough and taking a big step along the road back home.
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