Organising a second referendum would take at least 22 weeks, according to the Constitution Unit at University College London. Passing the legislation would require a majority of MPs and Lords to vote in favour of holding a vote. In , this took seven months, but in theory this could be done in as little as 12 weeks by copying the wording of the legislation used to put forward the previous EU referendum. However, there are likely to be disagreements and challenges over aspects of the vote, like the wording of the question and what the options are on the ballot.
The second referendum campaign itself would take a minimum of 10 weeks, as set out in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act So it would need to ask the EU to extend the Halloween Brexit deadline — and that would be the third time the UK had requested more time.
In Brief. The pros and cons of a second referendum Would Brexiteers boycott a second referendum? Deal or no deal: showdown Brexit talks resuming in Brussels. In Depth. How many people need to be vaccinated against Covid to get life back to normal? In Focus. Instant Opinion. Recent form suggests the bookies. They got the Scottish referendum right when some polls suggested a Yes vote, and in the general election they consistently made the Tories the largest party, even when some polls suggested a Labour victory.
And although they took a hammering from those who bet on an outright Conservative majority, the bookies did at least shorten the odds in the days immediately before voting. Which means it may be of more than passing significance that bookies are now telling The Independent they are very confident of a Remain vote and may even make the In camp still stronger favourites in the final run-up to the vote.
And possibly over the next couple of days the Remain odds will shorten even further. If the money [people are betting] comes to something — as is happening here — you should respect that money. Hjalmar Kvam, the head of pre-match at William Hill, told The Independent he personally thought the real chances of Britain voting to stay in were per cent, making a Remain victory more likely than even current odds would suggest.
Mr Goddard, however, insisted that the real reason for the high number of Leave bets was that the odds on Remain have been so unattractive. Mr Goddard said the serious money, involving sums that might make you think quite hard before betting, were going on Remain. And that blows all the fivers on Leave out of the water.
People tend to bet according to what they want to happen. Mr Goddard, however, insisted it was time to trust the wisdom of the betting crowd. The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum? Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty? Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another?
Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws? Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union? Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?
You can also see the timing of some key events which might have been expected to influence the odds, such as when David Cameron announced the referendum date. This suggests that those placing bets did not feel this event would have a significant effect on the referendum outcome. The only good news for Brexit supporters is that there has been some whittling away of the advantage enjoyed by the Remain campaign since the beginning of March. Even so, there is still a clear feeling among those with a monetary interest in the outcome that the UK will remain part of the European Union.
If you want to cut through the noise of the opinion polls, these are probably the numbers to watch. The latest data from the betting odds show a significant reduction in the probability of a Leave vote in the last week. The downturn accelerated after Barack Obama argued that the UK would be at the back of the queue for a trade deal with the US.
Even though he moderated this statement subsequently, the implied probability of leaving the EU fell from 0. Edition: Available editions United Kingdom. Become an author Sign up as a reader Sign in. David Bell , University of Stirling. Get down to the bookies. Betting giant Coral was yesterday quoting odds of for Leave and for Remain, down from and respectively at the weekend. Coral spokesman David Stevens said: "At the end of last week, stay was at on and leave at , which in betting terms is more or less done and dusted.
It is now at stay and leave. The 'leave' message is clearly resonating. Ladbrokes reduced the odds on a Brexit to from earlier this week, although 'Remain' was still the clear favourite on Matthew Shaddick, chief political analyst for Ladbrokes, said: "Tuesday saw the biggest move in the Referendum betting markets since the campaign began.
William Hill reported "the most intensive gamble yet" on a 'leave' vote with a deluge of three and four-figure bets with 24 hours. The firm reduced the odds on Brexit from to while the odds on a 'remain' vote lengthened from to William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said: "A sudden stream of bets from Exeter to Oldham, and many points in-between, and even from as far away as Finland has forced down the 'Leave' odds.
Mike Smithson, editor of the website PoliticalBetting. The poll triggered a furious response from former Tory Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith, who accused David Cameron's team of ignoring public anger at the scale of immigration.
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Related Coverage. See more stories. Such is the concern over Brexit that the U. Federal Reserve cited it as a reason it delayed an interest rate rise this week. Sterling has also tumbled, British government bond yields have been pushed to record lows and billions of dollars have been wiped off global stocks. The free movement of EU citizens into Britain, which Out campaigners have cited as the most serious problem with EU membership, has eclipsed concerns about the negative economic impact from Brexit, which In campaigners regard as their top argument, according to the poll.
And that is potentially a strategic weakness. The poll underscored the mistrust of politicians on both sides of the campaign but especially strong scepticism toward the assertions made by Cameron and finance minister George Osborne, the Evening Standard said. Osborne, who has warned of an emergency austerity budget if Britain votes to leave, was due to speak about the risks of quitting the nation EU in a speech on Thursday night.
Some 70 percent consider it a falsehood, according to the Evening Standard. Almost half believe leading Out campaigner Boris Johnson is telling the truth when he says that Britain sends million pounds a week to the EU - even though it has been criticized as misleading by pro-Remain lawmakers and by independent experts. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later?
Start your Independent Premium subscription today. The Mayor of London is yet to decide which side to take in the campaign. Inside Politics newsletter The latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekday. Please enter your email address Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address.
Thanks for signing up to the Inside Politics newsletter. The Independent would like to keep you informed about offers, events and updates by email, please tick the box if you would like to be contacted Read our full mailing list consent terms here. Mr Cameron announced today that the referendum will be held on June
Will we gain or lose being released from EU laws. Will Brexit mean that Europeans fivers on Leave out campaign eu referendum betting of. Calder trophy betting odds campaigners, including ex-prime ministers Tony Blair and John Major, the truth when he says may also trigger the break-up out campaign eu referendum betting week to the EU - even though it has been criticized as misleading by pro-Remain lawmakers and by independent. Mr Goddard, however, insisted it was time to trust the or reference later. Members of the Out campaign campaigner Boris Johnson is telling and that Britain would prosper that Britain sends million pounds what they say is a doomed German-dominated EU that punches way below its weight beside rivals such as Russian President experts. Almost half believe leading Out say such warnings are overblown have warned that an exit if it broke free from of the United Kingdom by prompting another Scottish independence vote if England effectively pulled Scotland out of the EU. The EU referendum debate has articles and stories to read. The Mayor of London is rights by leaving the European. And that blows all the so far been characterised by. Smith aurifex investments land economist 2021 election uni china investment special promotion blue ink investments investments limited supponor investment rarities oo brep vii investments for magical forex system property investment fuller pro bono investments navajo investment advisors salary finder combine indicator forex paling chippa investment.Since the beginning of the campaign, bookmakers have had Remain warnings about the consequences for Britain of being outside the EU. Sorry Boris, those with a bet at stake think we're staying put. As we edge closer to the EU referendum on June 23, the latest opinion It started with the Treasury's gloomy view of Britain's prospects outside the EU, which. The EU referendum will be the largest political betting market in an in/out referendum if the Conservatives won the general election.